AGP Executive Report

Vietnam Growth Watch: Vietnam’s economy grew 8.4% y/y in Q2 and 8.2% in H1, beating forecasts as manufacturing and construction stayed strong despite import disruptions and higher fuel costs. Brand & Finance Signals: Vietnam’s top 100 brands rose 11% to $43bn in 2026, led by Viettel (up 7% to $7.9bn) and supported by Vietcombank’s “strongest banking brand” recognition. FX & Markets: The US dollar slid for the week after softer US jobs data cooled expectations of a near-term Fed hike, easing pressure on regional currencies. Fraud & Enforcement: Hanoi police recommended prosecuting 188 suspects in the “Mr Pips” online investment fraud case, including alleged ringleader Pho Duc Nam, with charges spanning fraud, money laundering and asset handling. Policy & Business Environment: Vietnam’s new e-commerce law and implementation decree took effect, while authorities also moved to remove bottlenecks to spur growth. Corporate Moves: VinFast was honored for investor relations excellence, and UOB Vietnam broke ground on a $450m HQ in HCMC.

World Bank Income Updates: The World Bank reclassified Jordan to upper-middle-income effective July 1, 2026, after a statistical rebasing lifted its GNI per capita above the threshold; the same reshuffle also upgraded Vietnam, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Micronesia, while Mayotte moved to high income. Vietnam Economy Watch: Vietnam’s growth momentum stayed strong in the first half, with multiple reports citing Q2 GDP growth around 8.39% and continued gains in manufacturing and exports. FDI & Execution Pressure: Vietnam’s top leader urged faster policy implementation, calling execution “the bottleneck of all bottlenecks,” after several localities missed first-half growth targets and public investment disbursement lagged. Digital & Payments Push: Vietnam accelerated digital transformation, including plans to expand support for SMEs and cross-border QR payment services, alongside broader infrastructure and national database priorities. Corporate Moves: AEON Vietnam opened a large-format supermarket in Đà Nẵng, while Shopee said it will focus its business strategy on AI. Trade & Industry Signals: Vietnam’s trade and sector updates included export growth in fruits/vegetables and continued momentum in industrial growth and automation/AI events.

Vietnam Macro: Vietnam’s economy grew 8.39% year-on-year in Q2 2026, with industry and construction leading (10.51%) and services also strong (7.87%), while H1 growth was 8.18% as inflation eased and June CPI fell 0.39%. Hanoi Policy & Tax: The government issued Decree 252/2026/ND-CP under the Tax Administration Law, allowing temporary exit suspension for owners and legal reps with overdue tax debts (from 50m VND) and for foreign nationals and overseas Vietnamese with unpaid liabilities. HCMC Transport: Ho Chi Minh City rolled out free bus fares from July 1, upgrading fleets, shelters and e-ticketing; ridership jumped on day one, aiming to shift commuters from private vehicles. Trade & Enforcement: Market surveillance forces handled nearly 20,000 smuggling, trade fraud and counterfeit cases in H1, generating over 330bn VND for the state budget. Green Industry: Vietnam is pushing offshore wind as a growth engine for the marine economy, but says reforms are needed to clear regulatory, infrastructure and investment bottlenecks.

Vietnam Growth Watch: Vietnam’s GDP rose 8.18% in H1, with industry and construction up 9.81% and services up 8.09%, as the country targets 11.9% growth in H2 to hit its full-year goal. Demography Policy: Vietnam enacted a new Population Law after scrapping the two-child limit, offering childbirth subsidies from July 1, longer maternity/paternity leave, and expanded newborn healthcare support. Fintech Dealmaking: Blackstone, CVC Capital Partners and MUFG are among bidders for a stake in MoMo ahead of a September deadline, with the stake potentially as large as 50% and the fintech valued above $2 billion. Trade & Integration: EFTA and Vietnam concluded a comprehensive free trade agreement covering goods, services, investment, rules of origin and sustainable development, aimed at cutting barriers and boosting market access. Energy & Industry Decarbonisation: TotalEnergies ENEOS commissioned a nearly 28 MWp rooftop solar project at Samsung Electronics’ HCMC complex under Vietnam’s DPPA framework, generating over 40,000 MWh annually and cutting emissions over the contract period. Banking/Capital Markets: MUFG partnered with Hanoi’s Department of Finance on a 100-year capital master plan, signaling continued focus on long-horizon urban and financial development. Business Risk & Compliance: Pakistan’s FIA is investigating a syndicate allegedly smuggling human placenta for anti-aging injections, with shipments reportedly bound for Vietnam—raising fresh scrutiny on cross-border medical supply chains.

Vietnam Business & Economy: Vietnam’s push for higher-quality investment and faster growth is in focus as Hanoi rolls out a 100-year development vision with 276 priority projects, while lenders and capital markets gear up for more bond issuance and tighter rules for foreign investors buying bank shares. Banking & Finance: UOB Vietnam broke ground on a roughly US$450m headquarters in HCMC’s VIFC, signaling continued confidence in Vietnam’s financial hub ambitions. Transport & Aviation: Airlines have submitted initial operating plans for Ho Chi Minh City’s Long Thanh International ahead of its December 2026 opening, with VietJet proposing early domestic expansion and Vietnam Airlines planning route transfers from HCMC to Long Thanh. Consumer & Mobility: Toyota Vietnam reported June sales up 12% month-on-month, with hybrid deliveries surging 89%, reflecting demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Trade & Policy: Vietnam and EFTA concluded free trade agreement talks, while Vietnam also launched a pilot carbon market covering 51 cement plants as part of its green transition.

World Bank Income Upgrade: Vietnam and the Philippines have both been reclassified as upper-middle-income economies by the World Bank, a milestone expected to reshape development priorities and investor sentiment. Population Policy Shift: Vietnam is rolling out a “baby bonus” package after scrapping the two-child limit, extending maternity leave for second births and adding prenatal and newborn support plus cash incentives. Trade & Investment: EFTA (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland) has successfully concluded free trade agreement talks with Vietnam, covering goods/services, rules of origin, investment, IP, competition, trade remedies and procurement. Digital Payments: NAPAS, VietinBank and Singapore’s Liquid Group launched a Vietnam–Singapore cross-border QR payment link, enabling real-time SGD-VND conversion for tourists and easier acceptance for Vietnamese merchants. Energy & Industry: Vietnam cut retail fuel prices from 16:00 July 2, while global battery storage remains dominated by Chinese integrators (76% share), underscoring supply-chain and financing competition. Climate Finance: The Green Climate Fund approved $50m for Mekong Capital’s Mekong Earth Regeneration Fund to back lower-Mekong agribusinesses and climate-resilient practices. Bilateral Development Finance: JBIC pledged continued support for Vietnam’s strategic development goals, with focus areas including semiconductors, AI, digital transformation and the green transition.

Vietnam’s “baby bonus” rollout: Vietnam is one year after scrapping its two-child limit and is now pushing incentives to lift births, including longer maternity leave (from six to seven months for second children), free prenatal/newborn screenings, and one-off cash support up to about $228. Bank funding via bonds: Vietnam’s lenders are tapping the bond market to strengthen capital buffers, with state banks preparing large issuances to support medium- and long-term lending. Semiconductor & talent cooperation: Vietnam and Germany are expanding cooperation in semiconductors and high-tech manpower, focusing on joint research and lab/infrastructure effectiveness. Green energy build-out: Ca Mau has started construction of a 100MW wind power plant (BCG Energy) with commercial operation targeted for May 2028, aiming to feed clean power into the national grid. Trade & logistics signals: Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports to China are rising, while Hai Phong ports report a double-digit increase in cargo throughput, pointing to continued trade momentum. Population policy meets aging risk: The new measures are framed as a shift from controlling family planning to broader population development as Vietnam’s demographics worsen.

Long Thanh Airport Readiness: Airports Corporation of Vietnam says most domestic and international airlines want to start services once Long Thanh International Airport comes online, with Vietravel, Vietjet and Vietnam Airlines among those discussing late-2026 launches and higher 2027 frequencies. Banking & Finance: UOB Vietnam broke ground on a US$450m headquarters at VIFC-HCMC, a Grade A tower due in 2030, signaling deeper foreign-bank commitment to Vietnam’s ASEAN finance race. Digital & Industry Policy: Vietnam’s Politburo reviewed 18 months of Resolution 57 on science, innovation and digital transformation, with the event linked to thousands of locations nationwide. Carbon Markets: Vietnam launched a pilot carbon trading exchange covering 51 cement plants, aiming to advance net-zero tools for heavy industry. SME Growth & Trade Links: Hanoi pushed for digital transformation for 100,000 SMEs by 2030, while logistics and freight updates point to AI-driven demand keeping capacity tight across Asia-Pacific. Agriculture Exports: Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports rose nearly 18% in H1, and aquatic exports climbed 12.8%, reinforcing momentum in food trade. Aviation Connectivity: Vietnam Airlines is set to launch the HCMC–Colombo route on Aug 16, expanding South Asia links. Travel & Visas: Japan’s tighter visa rules are pushing out some foreign business owners, while UAE expands a pre-approved 14-day Emirates entry permit to more nationalities including Vietnam. Corporate Moves: Rosatom and Petrovietnam plan an additive technology centre in Vietnam, and Rosatom’s Vietnam expansion adds to the country’s push for higher-value industrial tech.

Vietnam–Australia Aviation: VietJet has applied for regulatory approval to launch domestic flights in Australia, reportedly eyeing Sydney with seven daily return routes and a fleet of about 10 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft—potentially shaking up the Qantas–Virgin duopoly. Digital Trust & Payments: Frost & Sullivan says Vietnam and Laos are moving toward “digital trust” infrastructure that can support digital signatures for cross-border trade, shifting e-signatures from standalone tools to broader identity and secure data ecosystems. Carbon Markets: Vietnam is preparing to launch a domestic carbon trading exchange as part of its net-zero push, signaling a new policy lever for emissions management and green finance. FDI & Industrial Policy: Vietnam is updating 2026 growth scenarios and measures for Jul–Dec, while also shifting FDI attraction toward higher quality and efficiency. Trade & Supply Chains: A report on “moving production to Vietnam” warns that many firms still rely on China for key parts, highlighting the limits of “China+1” without deeper supply-chain localization. Agriculture & Food Trade: The Philippines’ ube boom is driving imports from Vietnam as local supply falls, underscoring how Vietnam can benefit from regional crop-demand swings. Energy & Renewables: Equinor is exiting Japan’s offshore wind market and closing its Tokyo office, after dropping its renewables deployment target—another reminder of capital discipline in the sector.

Social Media Crackdown: Vietnam will fine people 20–30 million VND (and 30–50 million VND for more serious categories) for sharing fake or distorted content, graphic violence, copyright material without permission, or posts that undermine national unity and spread falsehoods that cause panic—starting from new rules effective July 1. Carbon Markets: Vietnam launched a pilot carbon trading exchange on June 29, with Hanoi Stock Exchange publishing daily trades; early sessions already logged over 1,200 tonnes of CO₂e traded and a first price around 5.40 USD/tonne. FDI Strategy: Party chief To Lam urged shifting from input-based incentives to outcome-based support to attract foreign investment that boosts Vietnam’s tech capability, competitiveness and autonomy, with stronger linkages to domestic firms. Aviation & Connectivity: Vietjet is reportedly seeking an air operator’s certificate to launch domestic flights in Australia, potentially basing up to 10 Boeing 737s. Banking & Capital Markets: SACOMBANK plans to issue $760.5 million in bonds to fund its next growth phase. Trade & Industry: Airfreight rates show signs of easing after fuel-price declines, though lanes from Vietnam remain mixed. Energy Projects: The Vung Ang III LNG consortium asked Ha Tinh to speed up land and sea allocation and grid connection steps for the $2 billion, ~1,500 MW plant. Business Climate: JETRO says 56.9% of Japanese firms in Vietnam plan to expand in the next 1–2 years, with Hanoi highlighted as a key draw for high-tech investment.

Long Thanh Airport Timeline: Vietnam’s new Long Thanh International Airport near Ho Chi Minh City is entering an accelerated 180-day push, with commercial operations targeted for December 2026; the project is about 77% complete and aims to handle 100 million passengers and 5 million tonnes of cargo annually, easing pressure on Tan Son Nhat. Border Trade Pulse: May border trade with third countries rose 26.2% year-on-year to 145.4 billion baht, led by durian exports to China and faster growth in electronics imports routed via neighboring transit. Food Security Policy Debate: A new long-term food security policy argument stresses market-enhancing measures, targeted state intervention where markets fail, and a whole-of-society approach involving government, private agribusiness, and local communities. Tech Self-Reliance Push: Vietnam is adding cybersecurity and quantum technologies to its list of 10 strategic technology groups, aiming to build research capacity and skilled talent for future quantum applications. Tourism Sustainability Training: Agoda and the GSTC Sustainable Tourism Academy marked its first anniversary, topping 3,000 registered users and expanding across Asia including Vietnam. Finance Watch: Sun Life announced a reset of interest rates on its Limited Recourse Capital Notes, setting the five-year period rate at 5.614% from June 30, 2026.

Hanoi Bonds Push: Hanoi signed with five major banks to prepare local government bond issuance for 2027-2030, targeting about $6-7.8 billion to fund priority infrastructure, especially the urban rail network. Shrimp Cost Squeeze: Vietnam’s shrimp farmers face rising input costs (feed, fuel, chemicals) while farmgate prices keep falling; the ministry points to higher aquafeed prices and urges longer supply agreements and production adjustments. Water Sector Calendar: Vietnam Water Week returns to Hanoi in September with a bigger exhibition (about 4,000 sq m) and more international participation, spotlighting water loss reduction, digital operations and carbon-cutting tech. Haze Risk in Mekong: Governments across the Greater Mekong are stepping up cross-border action as hotter weather and El Niño raise the risk of forest and peatland fires and transboundary haze. Tech & Finance Expansion: Mirae Asset Securities launched its global investment platform MAPS in Hong Kong to onboard overseas retail investors, including Vietnam-focused mobile trading. Logistics Shift: Shipping lines are moving away from mega-hubs toward secondary regional ports as network decentralisation accelerates, reshaping regional trade flows.

Housing Policy Shift: Vietnam is moving to make renting a “strategic pillar” as prices outpace incomes, with Ho Chi Minh City pushing large rental supply and Hanoi breaking ground on new projects, alongside a broader shift from ownership support to “right to accommodation.” Real Estate Transparency: The Ministry of Construction will launch a national property identification system on July 1, giving each asset a permanent code to track legal status and transaction history and curb speculation. Trade & Food Demand: Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable imports hit $1.3bn in the first five months, up 31% year-on-year, led by China and the US, as consumers keep expanding choices even during peak domestic harvest. Regional Finance: The ADB approved up to $30m equity into a Southeast Asia infrastructure fund targeting energy transition and digital connectivity, including Vietnam. SME Data Gap (Regional Lesson): Bangladesh’s SME growth is held back by weak data links to finance and markets, a reminder for Vietnam’s own push toward digital and transparent business ecosystems. Tourism Cooperation: Malaysia and Vietnam agreed to deepen medical and halal tourism collaboration and joint promotion.

Tourism & Culture Ties: Malaysia and Vietnam agreed to deepen cooperation in tourism and culture, including medical and halal tourism, and to boost joint promotion and business events. Higher Education Oversight: Vietnam’s Ministry of Education and Training released a draft circular on higher education institution standards, aiming to replace the 2024 framework and tighten criteria for licensing, quality assurance, and admissions. Carbon Markets: Vietnam is set to launch its first domestic carbon exchange on June 29, with the legal framework, trading rules, and settlement systems completed and pilot emission quotas assigned to 110 facilities. Green Finance for SMEs: Vietnam is urged to simplify access to green credit for small firms to speed up the green transition. Construction Quality Crackdown: The Philippines ordered destruction of P60M of substandard Portland cement imported from Vietnam after failing mandatory tests, underscoring tighter compliance in cross-border supply chains. US Trade Compliance Watch: Waaree Energies said US CBP confirmed it did not export to the US solar modules made with Chinese-origin cells, while noting the determination covers a narrow set of historical entries.

Vietnam’s Healthcare Tech Leap: Vinmec launched Vietnam’s first integrated, multi-connected high-tech robotic surgery network, linking centers across the country via a coordination hub at Vinmec Times City and deploying platforms including Da Vinci Xi, Hugo RAS and Toumai MT-1000. Transport Regulation: The LTFRB suspended an EV taxi operator for 30 days after a driver joined vloggers in a viral robbery prank, saying it “sends the wrong message” and undermines passenger safety trust. Maritime Risk Watch: An Indian-flagged bulk carrier transited the Strait of Hormuz via the Iran route carrying fertiliser, days after attacks raised the regional threat level and mine concerns. Regional Tech & Industry: Thailand proposed an ASEAN CHIPS Act to build a unified regional semiconductor ecosystem, including shared research infrastructure and standards, with an ASEAN Semiconductor Council in the plan. Vietnam Finance & Markets: VN-Index closed the week on a positive note, while Standard Chartered assessed Vietnam’s performance in the first half of 2026. Green Finance & Energy: Vietnam moved toward carbon market infrastructure with readiness for the first domestic carbon exchange launch, and policy signals continue around biofuel and green growth.

Vietnam’s Lawmaking Push: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung urged faster, clearer legislation to cut compliance costs and unblock investment, with a draft package due for the National Assembly’s upcoming extraordinary session. Healthcare & Tech Upgrade: Vinmec launched Vietnam’s first integrated high-tech robotic surgery network, linking multiple hospitals into a multi-connected robotic ecosystem to expand access nationwide. Semiconductor Capacity Building: Vietnam inaugurated a national multi-project wafer coordination centre to speed chip prototyping and strengthen the country’s role in the global semiconductor supply chain. Aviation & Connectivity: Vietjet opened bookings for the first direct Colombo–Ho Chi Minh City route, starting 18 August 2026, boosting tourism and business links. Airline Financing Watch: Air India said it may restore some flight cuts if West Asia security stays stable and fuel prices keep easing. Trade & Data: Vietnam and the US signed an MoU for real-time customs data exchange to improve transparency and trade facilitation. Green Finance: GuarantCo backed Vietnam’s first C&I solar green bond by Verdant Energy, supporting renewable energy project development.