AGP Executive Report

Banking Policy: The State Bank of Vietnam raised the cap on short-term capital used for medium- and long-term lending to 40% from July 1, aiming to give credit institutions more room to fund businesses and investment projects. FDI Strategy: Politburo Resolution 10-NQ/TW is pushing Vietnam International Financial Centre ambitions by reframing foreign-invested firms as a core part of the national economy, linking them to capital markets, free trade zones and innovation. Agri-Exports: Vietnam’s agricultural exports to China are shifting toward stricter quality, traceability and sustainable production requirements, with firms moving from volume-led sales to compliance-driven growth. Trade & Supply Chains: Plastics shortages linked to the Iran war are pushing up packaging costs and food prices across Asia; Vietnam’s Minh Phu Seafood says plastic packaging costs jumped about 50% since the war started. Hanoi Urban Pressure: Hanoi residents are mounting rare public opposition to large-scale home demolitions for a Red River redevelopment plan that could relocate around 250,000 people. Vietnam-Cuba Links: Venezuela and Vietnam reiterated plans to keep working on a shared development agenda, including cooperation in agriculture, energy, telecoms, trade and industry.

Vietnam Airlines Financing: Vietnam Airlines secured an in-principle EXIM-backed commitment for up to $2.9 billion to finance 50 Boeing 737 MAX 8s, supporting fleet modernisation and growth plans. Tourism & Capital Flows: Vinpearl closed a $255 million strategic investment led by SeaTown and Vietnam Oman Investment (VOI), signaling continued foreign confidence in Vietnam’s hospitality expansion. Energy & Regional Trade: Cambodia received $63 million from the ADB to integrate renewable power via a 250MW/2-hour battery storage system, aimed at stabilising the grid and boosting cross-border electricity trade with Vietnam. Logistics Expansion: CEVA Logistics added transpacific air charters linking Hanoi with Chicago, strengthening long-haul capacity for Vietnam’s industrial and tech supply chains. Trade Negotiations: India and the US wrapped two days of ministerial talks on an interim bilateral trade agreement, targeting completion before the July 24 tariff deadline. Vietnam Business Climate: Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance met major state energy groups (EVN, Petrovietnam, TKV) to discuss measures to unlock resources and safeguard national energy security amid global supply-chain shocks. Tech & Policy Pilot: Dien Bien approved a UAV sandbox trial through May 31, 2027, focused on agriculture, logistics, healthcare and digital mapping. E-commerce Jobs: Lazada cut about 5% of workforce across Southeast Asia, reflecting cost control as the sector matures.

Vietnam Airlines Financing: The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued a preliminary guarantee of over $2.9B for Vietnam Airlines to finance 50 Boeing 737 MAX 8 jets, supporting fleet renewal and capacity growth into 2030-2032. FDI Strategy: Vietnam’s Resolution 10-NQ/TW is framed as a new push for high-quality FDI and economic transformation, with a “single-window” approach for tourist stays and homestays also in the spotlight. Banking & Capital Markets: Vietnam’s public investment disbursement is accelerating, while the State Bank proposes easing short-term lending caps to spur growth—sparking debate over prudential risks. Power & Industry: Vietnam’s power plan review is prioritizing northern supply and green transport demand, and EVN has secured coal supply for generation. Trade & Regional Links: Business confidence in Vietnam rebounds strongly, and Vietnam is stepping up cooperation with Australia toward a successful APEC 2027. Digital & Cyber: WhatsApp phishing and malware campaigns using fake business documents are flagged as a growing threat for users and firms.

Vietnam Business Outlook: UOB’s Business Outlook Study 2026 says Vietnam business confidence is rebounding fast, with 85% of firms reporting positive sentiment (up from 48% in 2025), even as costs rise and geopolitics and trade pressures persist. Aviation & Infrastructure: Long Thanh International Airport faces more delays as the Airports Corporation of Vietnam replaces a chairman arrested over the project, raising concerns for the year-end full rollout. Air Cargo Expansion: Vietnam Airlines appoints ECS Group as its US cargo GSSA, aiming to strengthen transpacific freight links and grow North America capacity via digital and interline solutions. Energy & Gas Supply: Perenco and partners sign a gas sales agreement for Vietnam’s Su Tu Trang Phase 2B, targeting production this month and capacity ramp-up in 1H2028 to supply Southeast Vietnam. Shipping Deal: Greek Metrostar books two 50,000 dwt MR product tankers at HD Hyundai Mipo for 2028 delivery, adding to its product-focused fleet. EV Adoption Watch: BNEF forecasts EVs will top 25% of global car sales in 2026, with Vietnam cited at 39% EV penetration in 2025. E-commerce Restructuring: Lazada cuts about 5% of staff across Southeast Asia, including an undisclosed number in Singapore, saying it’s a business needs review rather than AI-driven. Trade Talks (India-US): India and the US begin talks to rework a trade pact amid tariff changes, with both sides discussing how to adjust commitments. Local Governance (Tourism/Urban): Ho Chi Minh City’s “5+1” model targets lifting services to 75% of GRDP by 2040, as the city pushes a broader services-led growth plan.

Hanoi Urban Transport Push: Hanoi will start construction of five key metro lines on June 22, marking a shift to coordinated, multi-route investment to speed up a high-capacity public transport network under its 2021-2030 master plan. Housing & Infrastructure: The same push includes major urban rail and rental housing priorities, with authorities aiming for broader coverage and faster delivery of integrated transport and city development. Tourism & Hospitality Expansion: Marriott appointed Sander Looijen as Market Vice President for Vietnam, overseeing 32 hotels and nearly 9,900 keys, with more than 50 projects in the pipeline. Business & Investment Climate: Vietnam’s push for investment and market confidence also shows up in banking and corporate finance themes, including moves to support growth while managing prudential concerns. Public Safety & Enforcement: Vietnam police uncovered a large cat meat trafficking operation in Ho Chi Minh City, rescuing 500+ cats and arresting nine suspects. Digital Security Warning: A WhatsApp-based malware campaign is targeting users in Vietnam and other countries by hijacking accounts and installing remote access tools. International Ties: Cuba and Vietnam reaffirmed solidarity and cooperation amid intensifying US sanctions, with Vietnam highlighted as a major Asian investor in Cuba’s agri-food and renewable energy sectors.

Urban Rail Push: Hanoi broke ground on five metro lines, with construction starting June 22 and an initial combined budget of over VND1,315tn (about $49.4bn), aiming to speed up a high-capacity public transport network under its 2021-2030 masterplan. Airport Expansion: Long Thanh International Airport’s Component 3 is reported at nearly 76% of signed contract value, with an acceleration push adding manpower and key power milestones to target first-phase completion by end-2026. Business Confidence: UOB’s Business Outlook Study 2026 shows Vietnamese firms’ sentiment rebounding to 85% positive, while energy management and efficiency remain top priorities amid tariff and geopolitical cost pressures. Trade & Finance: Vietnam is flagged as a core priority market for U.S. DFC capital deployment, with focus areas including energy transition, AI, data centers, fintech and semiconductor supply chains. Energy & Climate: Vietnam and the World Bank are moving toward a longer-term water security cooperation framework, targeting climate resilience and Mekong Delta food security. Aviation Infrastructure: Vietnam is reviewing adjustments to its 2030 airport plan, proposing a jump from 22 airports today to 32 by 2030 and 35 by 2050 to meet rising passenger demand. Renewables: Ca Mau started construction of a 50MW Japan–Bac Lieu wind power plant, aiming to boost clean energy and local jobs. Startup Spotlight: A Vietnamese cosmetics startup is targeting China’s $27bn market, signaling a shift from pure supply-chain ties to direct consumer expansion.

Renewables & Energy Security: Ca Mau has started construction of a nearly $95mn, 50MW wind power project (Japan–Bac Lieu Wind Power Plant) with completion targeted for end-2027, as the province pushes 2026–2030 clean power growth and upgrades transmission capacity. Business Climate & Investment Promotion: Dak Lak will host an investment promotion conference on June 26–27, pitching nearly 220 projects worth about $30.35bn, including renewable energy, industrial and logistics infrastructure, and high-tech agriculture. Corporate Cash Pressure: PwC Vietnam warns Vietnamese firms face a tougher second half as higher energy costs, tighter liquidity, and supply chain disruptions compound—urging faster execution on collections, inventory, hedging, and cash visibility. Regional Industrial Strategy: A new analysis argues Vietnam is moving beyond “one-location” manufacturing plays as infrastructure like Long Thanh Airport reshapes regional ecosystems across North, Central, and South. Tech & Robotics: Infineon and Vietnam’s VinRobotics signed an MoU to build humanoid robot capabilities, setting up a Hanoi competency centre and linking semiconductor components to robot functions. Digital Sovereignty: Experts in HCMC call for Vietnam to build an autonomous national quantum capability and strengthen post-quantum cryptography to reduce “harvest now, decrypt later” risks. Cross-border Expansion (SaaS): Info-Tech Systems says it will grow by following customers’ overseas expansion into Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam while expanding its HRMS and CRM product suite. Vietnam–ASEAN/Trade Context: Vietnam’s outward investment edged up in early 2026, while other coverage highlights Vietnam’s growing role in regional supply chains and investment flows.

Vietnam Capital Markets: MSCI flagged Vietnam’s reform progress, including the Global Broker access model and the Central Counterparty Clearing mechanism set to start in early 2027, while still pointing to unresolved accessibility issues ahead of its June 24 classification review. HCMC Real Estate & Finance: VIFC is positioning Ho Chi Minh City as a hub for banking, fintech, bonds and commodity trading, with legal groundwork targeted for 2025 and broader activation from 2026-27; separately, VIFC’s office-market push is expected to lift demand for Grade A space. Russia–Vietnam Investment: RDIF and SCIC agreed to deepen bilateral investment ties across transport, digital infrastructure, healthcare, LNG, gas-to-power and renewables, aligning projects with each country’s development priorities. Trade & Market Access: Vietnam’s FTA push toward the GCC and the review of AITIGA are set to expand market access for Vietnamese farm and food exports, but success will hinge on technical standards, food safety, traceability, rules of origin and halal compliance. Business Media & Regulation: Vietnam’s press sector is preparing for new Press Law implementation from July 1, with decrees aimed at keeping a legal gap-free transition and shifting newsroom focus toward credibility and responsibility even as AI is encouraged. Global Risk Watch: A “super El Niño” is expected to disrupt Asia’s food chains, adding pressure to already fragile agricultural supply.

Vietnam–Singapore Trade: Bilateral trade hit 23.3 billion SGD in the first five months of 2026, up 43.4% year-on-year, with Singapore’s exports rising and imports from Vietnam surging 142.9%, led by electronics and energy-linked supply chains. Corporate Bonds Oversight: A new decree tightens responsibilities for corporate bond issuers, aiming to improve accountability as Vietnam’s capital market framework is adjusted. Hanoi Night-Time Economy: Hanoi is pushing to unlock its night-time economy through culture and heritage, betting on tourism and services to lift urban spending. HCMC Investment Push: Ho Chi Minh City approved major projects worth VND155 trillion, signaling continued momentum in infrastructure and urban development. AI Talent & Ecosystem: Vietnam launched the second season of the AI Battle game show in Hanoi to spot and nurture AI talent, with hands-on training and a broader focus on practical social applications. Cyber/Telecom Fraud Alert: Vietnam’s Criminal Investigation Bureau warned about stolen SIM cards used for fraud, with scammers targeting returning migrant workers and tourists near Noi Bai airport. Cuba Reform Watch (Regional Impact): Cuba unveiled sweeping free-market reforms—176 measures including private banking and more room for private business—drawing skepticism over implementation speed. El Niño Commodity Risk: A strong El Niño is increasingly likely, raising risks for tropical “soft” commodities and agriculture through heat and rainfall disruption.

Corporate Bond Oversight: Vietnam tightens rules for privately placed corporate bonds, adding a debt-to-equity cap of 5x for issuers, stricter conditions for professional investors, and clearer duties on proceeds use, disclosure, and repayment dispute handling under Decree 200/2026/ND-CP. HCMC PPP Push: Ho Chi Minh City’s People’s Council approves major PPP transport and urban projects worth nearly VND155 trillion, including a cross-sea road linking Can Gio and Vung Tau and an airport expressway to boost logistics and tourism access. Public Finance Update: Vietnam’s state budget revenue hits VND1.425 quadrillion by June 15 (56% of target) while public investment disbursement reaches VND188.8 trillion (20.5% of plan), with revenue supported by manufacturing and trade. Energy Deal: Petrovietnam signs PSCs and a gas sales agreement covering offshore blocks and the Su Tu Trang gas field, aiming to secure energy supply and unlock new growth. Night-Time Economy: Hanoi moves to develop its night-time economy around culture and heritage to extend visitor spending beyond current hotspots. Stablecoins & Remittances: Vietnam stands out in digital asset activity relative to its economy, with stablecoins driving a large share of ASEAN digital asset flows and remittance use. Cuba Reform Watch: Cuba announces 176 measures to decentralize its economy, expand private business and allow private banking and foreign investment—an economic shift with potential regional implications.

Vietnam’s Digital Media Push: Vietnam plans to develop eight key multimedia press agencies by 2030 under a draft strategy, aiming to boost press quality, economic sustainability and digital transformation, including national digital platforms led by major outlets like VNA, VTV and Voice of Vietnam. Healthcare Tech Enters Vietnam: RaySearch Laboratories says it has won an order from Tam Anh General Hospital for RayStation, marking its entry into Vietnam and supporting advanced proton therapy planning ahead of a late-2027 hospital rollout. ASEAN-Russia Cooperation: ASEAN leaders wrapped up a two-day summit in Kazan, agreeing the Kazan Declaration to deepen ties with Russia across security, trade and connectivity through 2030. Cuba Reform Watch (Regional Business Angle): Cuba approved sweeping market-oriented reforms, including private banking and opening energy and other sectors to private and foreign capital—sparking hope and skepticism over whether changes will be implemented. Global Finance/Markets Note: VTB sold its stake in Gals-Development as part of non-core asset work, signaling continued restructuring in the region’s financial sector.

HCMC Growth Push: Ho Chi Minh City collected over VND500 trillion in state budget revenue in the first half of 2026 (about 62% of target), with industrial output and FDI surging after the city’s administrative expansion. Digital Media & Tech: Vietnam News Agency launched its first specialised digital platform, “Chuyen dong so,” focused on science, technology, innovation and digital transformation. Banking & FX: ABBank won State Bank approval to raise charter capital by more than VNĐ6.1 trillion (US$232m) and plans to launch an online FX service. Markets: VN-Index climbed past 1,830 points as Vin stocks led gains, while liquidity eased. Trade: Vietnam’s exports to the US rose 21.7% in Jan-May, driven mainly by electronics. Crypto Policy: Vietnam restricts domestic access in its pilot crypto market—local investors must already hold crypto, while foreigners can trade on licensed platforms. Strategic Tech Plan: Vietnam targets at least 10 large-scale strategic technology firms with $1bn+ revenue by 2030, backed by R&D and IP requirements. Logistics: Cai Mep port welcomed Maersk’s first TPX trans-Pacific service to the US West Coast, boosting direct connectivity. Water Security: Vietnam and the World Bank discussed cooperation on water security, climate resilience and sustainable development.

HCMC Development Push: The Politburo issued Resolution 09-NQ/TW (May 19, 2026) to set a new political foundation for Ho Chi Minh City’s “new era” growth, aligning priorities across central agencies and local Party bodies. ASEAN–Russia Trade Drive: At the Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan, leaders agreed to deepen strategic partnership with cooperation spanning trade, energy, agriculture, digitalization, science-tech and tourism. Vietnam–Russia Maritime Angle: Coverage links renewed Vietnam–Russia maritime cooperation (2026-2030) to Hanoi’s push to strengthen sea power amid South China Sea pressure, including naval and legal moves. Digital Identity & Governance: Hanoi plans a nationwide “Month for listening to the people,” with People’s Forums and a focus on routing citizen feedback to competent authorities on time. Food & Agriculture Signals: Vietnam-linked hog and corn market updates point to cautious buying and price expectations tied to global developments. Finance Innovation Watch: Custodia and Vantage propose a token that switches between bank deposits and stablecoins across a banking network, aiming to keep deposits inside the banking system. Energy/Climate Business: Vietnam’s digital transformation and carbon-market groundwork continue to feature, alongside broader regional energy security concerns.

HCMC Food Traceability Push: Ho Chi Minh City plans to expand its commodity exchange model beyond pork to poultry and eggs, with a 2026-2030 traceability rollout tied to a national digital tracking portal and “Responsible Green Tick” standards for institutional buyers. FDI Policy Shift: Vietnam’s Politburo Resolution 10-NQ/TW reframes foreign-invested enterprises as long-term growth drivers, moving incentives toward performance and real economic spillovers via industrial clusters and innovation ecosystems. Banking Capital Boost: SeABank raises charter capital to VND34.29 trillion, funded by retained profits, to strengthen capital adequacy and fund digital expansion. Digital Transformation Targets: Vietnam sets major digital economy and society goals to 2030, including scaling STEM enrolments, cashless payments, and guiding hundreds of thousands of SMEs through digital transformation. Cybersecurity Alert: Fortinet FortiGate “FortiBleed” exposes admin credentials for 73,932 internet-facing firewalls across 194 countries, urging immediate password rotation and network audits. Mobility Tech Expansion: KPIT opens a new technology centre in Hanoi and plans to add 100+ roles, aiming to support mobility engineering and innovation across Southeast Asia. Aviation & Tourism Growth: Sun PhuQuoc Airways maps further international route expansion from Phu Quoc, adding more regional links and targeting longer-haul growth from 2027. Energy Security Watch: The IEA warns Southeast Asia faces energy security vulnerabilities as Middle East supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz raise costs and expose import dependence.

HCMC Development Blueprint: The Politburo’s Resolution No. 09-NQ/TW (May 19, 2026) sets the political roadmap for Ho Chi Minh City to speed up growth, aligning priorities across central agencies and local Party bodies. Vietnam–Russia Community & Trade Links: PM Le Minh Hung met Vietnamese community and agencies in Kazan ahead of the ASEAN–Russia Commemorative Summit, stressing protection of citizens abroad and praising business and community groups’ contributions to bilateral ties. Cat Meat Ring Crackdown: Ho Chi Minh City police seized 400+ cats in a major animal theft ring; dozens were reunited with owners, while some died due to harsh conditions—renewing pressure for stronger enforcement and animal welfare campaigns. Agricultural Traceability Push: Vietnam’s traceability system now covers 26 provinces/cities and 18,500 products; from July 1 it will expand to key commodities like rice, meat, eggs, milk, pineapple and tea to improve transparency and export access. Legal & Market Infrastructure: The Justice Ministry has started drafting a new decree on registering security interests to replace Decree 99/2022, aiming to modernise procedures and support online services. IP Valuation Focus: Vietnam is working with international standards to improve how intellectual property is valued and commercialised, a step for turning intangible assets into tradable value.

HCMC Development Blueprint: Vietnam’s Politburo Resolution No. 09-NQ/TW (May 19) lays out priorities to accelerate Ho Chi Minh City’s growth in the “new era,” building on earlier city resolutions. Macro Outlook: Vietnam keeps its 10% 2026 growth target despite external headwinds; first five months show 1.83% growth and trade turnover up 25% y/y, though the trade deficit widened. Policy Support for Business: The Ministry of Finance proposes deferring VAT, corporate income tax, personal income tax and land-rent payments in 2026 (about $4.9bn) to ease cashflow pressure. Capital Markets & Lawmaking: The 16th National Assembly’s legislative workload heavily involves the Ministry of Finance, with many tasks concentrated in 2026. AI for Industry: Microsoft data puts Vietnam at 26.5% AI adoption (second-highest in ASEAN), while PwC highlights key governance and data hurdles to turn AI pilots into revenue. Green Transition: Vietnam is laying groundwork for a phased domestic carbon market; Hanoi also approved incentives to develop rental housing for workers and priority groups. Corporate Moves: Vinachem debuts on Fortune Southeast Asia 500; Vingroup climbs 11 places to rank 26th. Trade & Cooperation: Vietnam and Chile push to remove barriers for fruit and meat trade; Vietnam–Poland talks focus on circular economy and green tech. Enforcement & Social Impact: Police rescued 400+ cats in a major cat-meat trafficking ring, with some deaths reported after harsh conditions.